Model Evaluation & Validation Process
The ecological and environmental models run within the M&DS suite are at different stages of development with respect to model evaluation.
A working group has been established to develop an overall framework for evaluation of model fitness for purpose in the context of long-term intervention planning.
Environmental Modelling
Evaluation of the GBR-scale eReefs marine models has been extensively documented in eReefs technical reports and journal papers (Skerratt et al., 2019; Robson et al., 2020).
Evaluation of RECOM models for reef clusters has commenced, using EcoRRAP monitoring data including temperature and local-scale current monitoring data.
More information on EcoRRAP: here
Evaluation of larval connectivity OceanParcels modelling has been conducted at some sites using a range of approaches, including tracer and recruitment studies (Doropolous & Roff, 2022).
Ecological Modelling
At the reef cluster scale, C~scape uses long term monitoring data from the Moore reef cluster to validate model outputs.
At the regional scale CoCoNet uses Long Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) data collected by AIMS, to calibrate and refine the model, improving alignment with the counterfactual results, in relation to both coral cover and CoTS densities.
More information on the Long-Term Monitoring Program (LTMP): here
References
Doropoulos, C. and Roff, G. (2022). Coloring coral larvae allows tracking of local dispersal and settlement. Plos Biology, 20(12). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001907
Robson, B.J., Skerratt, J., Baird, M.E., Davies, C., Herzfeld, M., Jones, E.M., Mongin, M., Richardson, A.J., Rizwi, F., Wild-Allen, K. and Steven, A.D. (2020). Enhanced assessment of the eReefs biogeochemical model for the Great Barrier Reef using the Concept/State/Process/System model evaluation framework. Environmental Modelling & Software, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104707
Skerratt, J.H., Mongin, M., Baird, M.E., Wild-Allen, K.A., Robson, B.J., Schaffelke, B., Davies, C.H., Richardson, A.J., Margvelashvili, N., Soja-Wozniak, M. and Steven, A.D.L. (2019). Simulated nutrient and plankton dynamics in the Great Barrier Reef (2011–2016). Journal of Marine Systems, 192, pp.51-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2018.12.006